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Abstract

In this thesis, three stochastic epidemic models for intervention for emerging diseases are considered. The models are variants of real-time, responsive intervention, based upon observing diagnosed cases and targeting intervention towards individuals they have infected or are likely to have infected, be they housemates or named contacts. These models are:

(i) a local tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a community of households, wherein intervention (vaccination and/or isolation) is directed towards housemates of diagnosed individuals,

(ii) a contact tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a homogeneously-mixing population, with isolation of traced contacts of a diagnosed individual,

(iii) a local tracing and contact tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a community of households, with intervention directed towards housemates of both diagnosed and traced individuals.

These are quantified by deriving threshold parameters that determine whether the disease will infect a few individuals or a sizeable proportion of the population, as well as probabilities for such events occurring.